Decades will pass before the state takes its final form, but economists and demographers predict a more diverse population, a more complex economy and the need for a more flexible, responsive education system.

The U.S. Census Bureau releases its annual population estimates today. Once again, the top 10 list of fastest-growing states includes Utah and its Mountain West neighbors. Utah has ranked eighth or better since 2001.

But for the first time, the new estimates recognize the increasing role undocumented immigrants and foreign-born residents have played in Utah's population growth.

Two of every five new residents moved into the state, and more than half of those are foreigners. This estimate most likely is low, according to demographer Pam Perlich, of the University of Utah. Historically, the Census Bureau has had difficulty accurately counting and projecting the undocumented population.

Perlich estimates that Utah's population includes more than 100,000 undocumented immigrants, not to mention their children, many of whom are citizens.

Many have moved here to find work and their presence has sparked a secondary economic boom, according to Mark Knold, senior economist with the Utah Department of Workforce Services.

"They are not driving the economy," he said. "The economy is driving them here."

The Intermountain West was essentially left out of much of the industrial revolution. Few business leaders wanted to build a factory in a sparsely populated area of the country where mountains inhibited the cheap transportation of goods.

But with the expansion of the technology-based economy starting in the 1990s, the mountains were no longer seen as an obstacle. Instead, they were an attraction, Knold said. High-tech companies lured educated workers, giving the state an economic boost.

This first wave of highly educated workers with expendable incomes created a demand for more housing, more restaurants, more stores, which then triggered a secondary economic boom when foreign-born workers, mostly from Mexico, came to fill the service jobs.

"We are seeing the fruits of a long-term shift in the makeup of the nation's economy," Knold said.

He believes this cycle has led Utah to its current economic prosperity. Utah's unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the nation and its job growth is one of the fastest.

While the economy may slow down from time to time, Knold doesn't believe this growth will stop any time soon.

Utah's schools already are feeling this ongoing surge. Since 2000, seven of every 10 new students were minorities and more than half were Latino.

Their arrival coincides with a boom of school-age residents among Utah's predominantly white population.

The combination is creating a crush of students who will move through the schools in the next decade with "more diverse education needs," Perlich said.

Where teachers in the past regularly taught a homogenous population, now many must deal with language barriers and poverty. Additionally, there is the need to build more elementary schools.

Education officials will start to notice a decline in test scores and educational statistics because of the diversification of the state, Knold and Perlich said.

Perlich stresses this expected trend is not an issue of race as much as socioeconomics and parents' educational attainment.

A recent example is a national study on higher education, conducted by the National Conference of State Legislatures.

The report found that in the past decade the percent of Utahns ages 25 to 34 with bachelor's degrees fell from 41 percent to 26 percent.

Perlich said this statistic is skewed by young Latino immigrants working in fields like construction.

Many of these immigrants will settle in Utah and the transition is expected to have its rough spots, but Knold predicts their children will follow the historic example of other immigrant groups.

"The first generation comes with a social cost, but the second and third generations pay it back many times over," he said. "Italians when they first came were seen as a problem; same with the Irish."

mcanham@sltrib.com