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The Jordan School District on Wednesday projected it will need more than $750 million in new bonding to pay for renovation and construction of schools it will have to build through 2016 to accommodate growth. If the projection proves true, the bond would be the largest ever requested by a school district in Utah.

Property tax rates would increase dramatically to pay for a bond of that magnitude. And if the district is split into two smaller entities as some cities are discussing residents on the district's west side would shoulder significantly higher taxes, while east side residents' taxes would decline because most of the new schools would need to be built in the new west-side district, officials said.

With student enrollment projected to hit nearly 104,000 in 2016, the state's largest school district - assuming it stays intact - will need to build an estimated 26 new schools and remodel another 39 in the next 10 years, Jordan officials said at a growth summit attended by education and community leaders.

Voters approved a $281 million bond package in 2003, but the district already knows that money won't stretch far enough to cover the original slate of projects. A dramatic rise in construction costs has eaten up the district's bond money more quickly than anyone anticipated. Building a future high school could cost as much as $71.5 million when factoring in the cost of land, furnishings and equipment.

Land in the district cost $40,000 an acre a few years ago, but now is being offered for sale at about $250,000. As a whole, general structure costs including steel and concrete have jumped nearly 65 percent.

Over the next decade, Jordan's population explosion will be unevenly distributed across the district with the Copper Hills, Bingham and Riverton high school areas in the southwest part of the Salt Lake valley seeing major increases.

Jordan officials described their projections as conservative, saying they only factored in developments that have been submitted to planning departments. Various future developments including those pondered by Kennecott Land were not included.

If the district were to remain intact, residents over time would pay higher property taxes of between $130 and $169 per $100,000 market value annually assuming a bond was approved by voters. By contrast, residents in a new west-side district would pay as much as $246 per $100,000 annually to finance new schools. East-side residents would eventually see their rates drop as low as $83 per $100,000.

But some public officials were skeptical of the district's snapshot and suggested that the discrepancy between east and west side tax rates would not be nearly as drastic as assumed. Steve Smith, a Sandy city councilor, said the district had underestimated the housing value growth on the west side, which would affect tax rates.

Sandy has joined with Draper, Cottonwood Heights, Midvale, Alta and Salt Lake County on a feasibility study to explore the possibility of forming a new school district.

The study, conducted by an independent party, will review costs, educational quality and efficiency, among other issues.

"In the end if it does turn out to be harmful west of the Jordan River, we may decide not to do it," said Smith, the Sandy official.

Participants agreed that whatever evolves, students' best interests remain pivotal.

"Our obligation is to our children - that is a valley-wide responsibility," said Michelle Baguley, a Herriman city councilor. "There are people who have been paying for the bonds for years and maybe not benefiting from them, but now that there's a need there we should continue to share the pain."

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* JULIA LYON can be contacted at jlyon@sltrib.com or 801-257-8748.