The number of Utah families on cash assistance fell to 8,055 in March, a low not seen since before the start of the 2001 national recession. Medicaid rolls also are edging downward, after more than four years of steep increases.

Driving the trend, in part, are tougher work requirements for welfare recipients and the federal government's squeezing of Medicaid, say state officials. But the prime mover is likely Utah's red-hot job market.

"It certainly fits the expected pattern," said Mark Knold, senior economist at the Department of Workforce Services. "We've been in a strong economy for over a year now. But it usually takes awhile for the economy to absorb the excess out there, people who have been idle and unemployed."

Another indicator: A record number of Utahns are tapping into subsidies to pay for child care - 7,230 families in March, up from 6,020 the year prior.

"That's a good thing. That means people are working and need help paying someone to watch their kids," said Knold.

It also means a break for taxpayers who foot the bill for low-income supports. Child care subsidies come a lot cheaper than Medicaid.

But even as Medicaid rolls shrink, spending on the health safety net promises to grow, thanks to inflation and the development of new medical technologies and drugs.

Also, Medicaid enrollees are not "a monolithic group," said state Medicaid director Michael Hales.

Some cost more than others, namely the elderly and disabled whose numbers are on the rise, said Hales. On average, it costs about $1,000 a month to assist a disabled person on Medicaid, compared to $150 to insure a child for a month.

The drop in public assistance caseloads comes months before the 10th anniversary of welfare reform, which established work requirements, gave states more discretion in setting policy and, in Utah, resulted in a three-year limit on assistance. Nationally, caseloads have fallen steadily since the reform; Utah's welfare rolls are less than half their peak of nearly 18,000 in 1993.

For a brief spell at the tail of the recession in October 2002, Utah's caseloads crept up, but soon leveled off and have started to drop again.

But advocates for the poor warn the good times won't last forever.

"Just getting a job is not going to solve the problems. These folks will be the first people laid off when the economy sours," said Bill Tibbetts at Crossroads Urban Center, the state's largest food pantry.

Welfare clients typically latch onto low-paying jobs with limited opportunities for advancement, said Tibbetts. He cites a University of Utah study that showed 42 percent of those leaving welfare in 2002 did not have a high school diploma and 19 percent had trouble reading or writing.

State welfare programs should be focusing more on job training, said Tibbetts.

kstewart@sltrib.com