But what if it doesn't?

How many more years of below-normal precipitation can Utah withstand before the state's economy and way of life begin to suffer?

What if this drought is the beginning of an epic change in climate?

What happens during the next prolonged drought, 50 years from now, when Utah's population is more than twice its current size?

Will there be anything left for fish and wildlife that depend on streams?

These are questions that should keep state water planners and environmentalists restless through these balmy summer nights.

For now, though, Utah's chief water czar, D. Larry Anderson, appears to be sleeping just fine -- mainly because he has, as he puts it, a good "cushion."

That cushion is the huge volume of water used by Utah's farms and ranches, which accounts for about 80 percent of the state's total developed water supply.

During droughts, agriculture -- which draws water directly from streams and small reservoirs -- takes the hit. Municipal supplies, which are built around large reservoirs with several years of built-in storage, are less susceptible to prolonged dry spells.

"There will be some cushion," Anderson says, sporting a "Slow the Flow" T-shirt. "We have plenty of water for the foreseeable future."

The problem is, not all of it is available for drinking. Of the approximately 7.3 million acre-feet of water that flows through the state each year, only about 1.2 million acre-feet can be delivered today for culinary use. Residents consume nearly 1 million acre-feet per year. The rest of the state's water supply goes to agriculture, the Great Salt Lake, evaporation and to states downstream on the Colorado River.

Assuming current population trends and per-capita rates of consumption, culinary water demand is expected to rise to 2 million acre-feet by 2050, leaving a deficit of about 800,000 acre-feet above the deliverable supply of 1.2 million acre-feet.

State water officials hope to squeeze about half of that water from people, through conservation. After all, about two-thirds of Utahns' water use is for landscaping, and experts estimate about half of that is wasted. The state hopes to cut Utahns' per-capita water consumption by 25 percent by 2050.

As subdivisions sprout up in once-irrigated fields, another 264,000 acre-feet are expected to become available, as agricultural water rights convert to municipal and industrial rights. After conservation and agricultural conversion make their contributions, Utahns in 2050 still would be short about 136,000 acre-feet.

That deficit, Anderson says, would be made up from any combination of three major new water projects now on the drawing board. Each of them would require enormous public investment at a time when existing water infrastructure, such as delivery systems and treatment plants, need to be expanded or replaced.

The Bear River is considered the next most likely source of water for the Wasatch Front, which hopes to siphon about 150,000 acre-feet a year. The total project would cost about $600 million.

In southwestern Utah, water managers from Washington and Iron counties are eyeing a $400 million pipeline project that would deliver water from Lake Powell, more than 120 miles away.

A third, though less likely, project contemplates a 115-mile pipeline that would run from northern Flaming Gorge in Wyoming to the Weber River Basin drainages near Coalville. Estimated to cost about $300 million, the pipeline could deliver about 60,000 acre-feet of water a year to the Wasatch Front.

Environmentalists say the new water-development projects would unnecessarily disrupt ecosystems and landscapes. They argue for more emphasis on conservation, better planning, curbs on growth and a shift in planning.

"During this drought, there's been no discussion about the environment," laments Owen Lammers, director of the Moab-based Living Rivers. "It's been people, people, people. We want to make sure the environment has a seat at the table in managing human demands."

Erica Thoen, of the Salt Lake City-based Utah Rivers Council, criticizes the state's water goal of reducing per-capita daily consumption by 25 percent by 2050 -- as too weak.

Utahns, she notes, already have reached much of that goal during this current drought.

In Salt Lake City, for example, residents have cut their water use by 18 percent. Today, a Salt Laker consumes about 214 gallons per day -- 10 percent less than the statewide target of 240 gallons four decades from now. And the city's conservation director, Stephanie Duer, says she believes the city can do even better.

A larger sampling of 16 major water agencies around the state suggests that, despite a growing population, total water use in Utah has declined 19 percent since 2000.

So is the state goal too wimpy?

State officials defend their conservation goal, which was established well before this six-year drought began, as being achievable and sustainable without being draconian.

"Beyond [25 percent], things get tougher," says Anderson. "The environmental community wants us to do it tomorrow. We can't force it down [residents'] throats."

To get more than 25 percent, water agencies would have to increase water rates and cities would have to enact restrictions on landscaping and limit the size of residential building lots, which Anderson says are too large.

He does not believe, however, in the need for government curbs on growth, noting the potential for obtaining more water through conservation and converting more agricultural shares.

"We don't think water is a limiting factor," Anderson says.

However, to date the state's plans for providing water to ever-increasing populations have not factored in the possibility of climate change caused by global warming, which many leading scientists say could significantly alter how and when Utah gets its precipitation.

"We've got to get away from historic planning and look at new hydrologic realities of a shrinking snowpack and changing seasonality of runoff," says Fred Wagner, a Utah State University professor emeritus and expert on global warming. "It is potentially a serious problem that needs serious analysis."

Global warming notwithstanding, the current drought has given water officials plenty of pause.

"Long-term drought cycles of many years should be expected," says Richard Bay, chief engineer of the Jordan Valley Water Conservancy District. "We'll make it through this [drought] quite nicely.

"The next time this occurs, with an increased population, that will be the true test." * Water consumption in Utah is down, but is it enough?