I have this NBA conference finals stuff figured out, I think, and my analysis should come as a great relief to commissioner David Stern and all the TV executives willing to trade their Golden Globes for a Kobe Bryant-LeBron James match-up in the Finals.

It's going to happen.

There have been a few doubters surface along the way, thanks to the uninspired play of the Lakers in a few games against Utah and Houston ... thanks to the truly admirable effort of the shorthanded Rockets in the second round ... and thanks to the Nuggets' overpowering march to their first Western Conference final in 24 years.

Still, Kobe versus LeBron looks as inevitable as a Kenyon Martin meltdown, a Sasha Vujacic bad-hair day or an Anderson Varejao flop.

While a Denver-Orlando Final would appeal to underdog-lovers everywhere, the Lakers and Cavaliers are too talented, too deep and too experienced in the matters at hand to be denied at this point.

So get ready for another month of Jack Nicholson screaming at the referees and blimp shots of the Rock 'n' Roll Hall of Fame.

It's going to be Lakers-Cavaliers in the NBA Finals for the most simple reason.

They are the best teams.

I don't dismiss Denver lightly because the Nuggets are playing well and with confidence.

Like Houston, they are tough-minded and physical. Unlike Houston, they are tough-minded, physical and big enough to start someone other than 6-foot-6 Chuck Hayes at center.

Up front, Denver can neutralize the Lakers. But who guards Kobe Bryant, who averaged 31 points against the Nuggets during the regular season? Who prevents him from disrupting the entire defense by forcing double-teams?

J.R. Smith? Anthony Carter? Dahntay Jones?

Another factor: Denver's road to the conference finals was as smooth as Utah's west desert.

The Nuggets couldn't have hand-picked more beatable opponents in the opening rounds than New Orleans and Dallas, unless Sacramento and Memphis had been available.

Remember, the Hornets were the only team in the West playing worse than Utah in the final weeks of the regular season.

And Dallas?

The Mavericks weren't too small or too one-dimensional to beat injury-battered San Antonio in the first round, but those shortcomings didn't give them a chance against Denver.

Admittedly, the Nuggets have breezed to the conference finals. But they should have breezed, given the circumstances.

Truthfully, I'm not sure Denver's 8-2 playoff record indicates much more than good fortune, at least until now.

In the Eastern Conference, Cleveland should have an easier time than the Lakers.

Boston was a potential roadblock for the Cavs, but the reigning world champion Celtics became a footnote in these playoffs when All-Star Kevin Garnett injured his knee trying to catch an ally-oop pass in Utah on Feb. 19.

In the depthless East, Orlando used Garnett's injury to become the second-best team and, certainly, the Magic deserve their chance to shock the world.

When they rallied from a 3-2 deficit against the Celtics and won Game 7 of the conference semifinals in Boston on Sunday, they showed grit and determination.

But are Stern and those TV execs worried about their Kobe-Lebron dream turning into a nightmare?

I don't think so, either.