Though challenges remain, the nation's recession shows signs of bottoming out, and Utah's economy is poised for a strong recovery, Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. and an economist said Monday.
Some who heard those optimistic assessments at the Governor's third annual Utah Economic Summit, said they remain hopeful but more cautious about the state's future, while others counseled that a turnaround might be further off.
Huntsman and Wells Fargo economist Kelly Matthews told a sold-out crowd of more than 1,200 at Grand America Hotel in Salt Lake City that paid $150 a pop for the all-day session Utah is poised to move out of the recession.
"Utah's economy is following a path that can return the state to its prior level of prosperity," said Matthews.
Huntsman said the U.S. economy has probably been scraping along the bottom for a few months and should begin to see "real light at the end of the tunnel."
"Are we in a position to move forward so that all of our engines are fired up and ready to go as we move into the future? No question about it," Huntsman said.
Mark Knold, senior economist at the Utah Department of Workforce Services, did not attend the summit but said he agrees that there are indications the economy has reached its low point. He cautioned that "it's a deep bottom and it doesn't mean it's a strong turn-around immediately."
Utah is still experiencing growing initial unemployment claims, a trend forecast to last through midyear. If claims don't begin to tail off by then, the recession -- already the worst in Utah since the Depression -- will grow deeper.
"We anticipate this kind of dialogue up until June, July, August," Knold said. "If we don't see those claims and things starting to show signs of stabilization by then, it's OK; this is going to be longer than we think."
In signaling his optimism, Huntsman pointed to numerous factors that experts inside and beyond Utah have suggested show the state will lead the country out of the recession. The nonpartisan American Legislative Exchange Council recently graded Utah's economy the most competitive in the nation. The nonprofit association of legislators also said the state will be the fastest to recover from the recession, now in its 17th month.
Among those in attendance at the summit -- where Walt Disney and Pixar Animation Studios CEO Ed Catmull also spoke -- several representatives of the business, education and government sectors said that although they may not share the same level of optimism, they agree the state is better positioned than most to recover. Even so, business conditions in Utah remain difficult.
Bryce Baker of Hamilton Partners, a commercial real estate developer, said some potential office tenants remain reluctant to sign long-term leases, while the declining number of jobs gives the company pause over new apartment construction.
"We are still waiting for the big floodgates to open, and nobody really knows what that is," he said.
Kevin Pearson, president of ProActive Energy Concepts, an Ogden maker of energy-saving windows, agreed with Huntsman and Matthews that the downturn is beginning to wane.
"He's right on the money," Pearson said. "I think we are going to recover."
Matthews said he believes the threat of deflation, or falling prices that lead to a continuing downward spiral, is over. He cited a rising stock market over the past few weeks (despite Monday's big decline), renewed profits in the financial sector and the recent decline in mortgage rates as a sign the economy is bottoming out
Huntsman and Matthews also pointed to areas of the Utah economy that portend a return to prosperity. Housing is getting more affordable, thanks to federal and state incentives, and the governor took pains to point out the state's leading role in developing new technologies.
