Utah's outlook for spring runoff -- critically important to water supplies for recreationists, farmers and city dwellers alike -- is more in the tank than in the reservoirs.

The latest forecast, released Wednesday, turned around fast from just a week ago, when hundreds of water users in St. George heard optimistic water-year predictions from federal hydrologists and meteorologists.

But the skies dried up. The air warmed up (especially at night). Soils dehydrated. And hopes for an abundant water year now are melting away.

As of Wednesday, neither rain nor snow has fallen for five to 10 days across the state. The last time it did storm, the rain was muddy.

"We've got kind of the weather pattern for Armageddon," lamented National Weather Service hydrologist Brian McInerney.

He joined Natural Resources Conservation Service snow-survey supervisor Randy Julander, weather service lead forecaster Larry Dunn and Bureau of Reclamation hydrologist Lisa Verzella for a water update.

Their main message: We said before the state's water situation looked close to normal, but then the weather turned warm, dry and windy. Expect subnormal precipitation and an even worse forecast next month.

"Things are changing fairly quickly and definitely not for the better," Julander said. "We normally should be accumulating [snow]. We're not."

The snowpack in the Wasatch Mountains above Salt Lake County is about 94 percent of normal, but most likely will melt prematurely. In the Provo River basin, snowpack is 94 percent of normal, McInerney said, and is melting a tenth of an inch per day and speeding up. The Bear River basin's snowpack is 86 percent of normal, he added, "not a good sign."

Snowpacks along the north slope of the Uintas are melting off along with those in lower elevations in the Sevier basin, where dry soils are sucking up the water before it reaches reservoirs. Snow in Daggett County's Hickerson Park, Julander said, could be gone in the next two to three weeks.

Similar stories could unfold in all of the state's hydrology basins by mid-April. As Julander said, the soil-moisture deficit is the first bill you pay before the reservoirs can fill.

It was a different story last year. Though March and April were relatively dry, the weather stayed cold enough to keep the snow in the mountains until later in the spring.

McInerney pointed to a trend of late-starting winters plus gradual warming, along with daytime temperatures a little above average and overnight lows steadily climbing, as the culprits.

Those conditions caused him to reset his Lake Powell forecast. On March 1, he estimated the giant reservoir would be 98 percent of average. He now believes it will reach 88 percent. On March 1, the Virgin River basin looked to hit 96 percent to 100 percent of normal, but now it looks more like 66 percent to 78 percent.

Conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean make for uncertain long-range weather forecasts. In the short term, Dunn said, temperatures will rise into the weekend, with Saturday expected to be a warm, windy, snow-eating day.

By Sunday night, a cold front is expected creep in and could bring an inch or two of new snow to the mountains. Valley temps could drop into the 20s, with highs climbing to the 30s through Monday and into the 40s by Tuesday.

"It's going to be a shock," Dunn said.

At the same time, cool wet weather would slow the snowpack's shrinking. But if the weather reverts to dry and warm in April ... well, you get the picture.

Darl Field of the Roy Water Conservancy District attended Wednesday's presentation as well as the cheerier meeting in St. George. He said he has heard other water managers discussing the earlier session as if it were still operative.

The new forecast will catch up to them soon enough, Field said. "It's quite a drastic change."

There was some good news. Verzella said three reservoirs undergoing construction last summer -- Willard Bay, Deer Creek and Scofield -- are filling. And nearly all other state reservoirs are reporting higher levels than this time last year.