Such is the forecast by economists, planners, developers and business leaders who say Utah's capital is well-positioned to withstand an economic slug despite the financial chaos gripping much of the country.
"Although we will feel that bump, it will be very slight here," said Frank Gray, the city's community and economic development director, predicting the two coasts and Midwest will be hammered much harder.
"You have high-end commercial property that has less risk than the suburban areas," explained James Wood, director of the University of Utah's Bureau of Business Research. "And you have [the $1.5 billion] City Creek coming."
The diagnosis was part of a dialogue called by the City Council to assess the city's economic health in the face of a recession and continuing market meltdown.
Lane Beattie, Salt Lake Chamber president, said two weeks ago at a meeting with other business boards in Florida, "I almost felt guilty, almost" about delivering the only "glowing" report.
Beattie pointed to the dozen downtown cranes as "mascots of progress," and reported 9.5 million hits on the Downtown Rising Web site.
And Jeff Edwards, with the Economic Development Corporation of Utah, noted four "significant" commercial-property inquiries hit his desk within the past week.
"It's a really interesting phenomenon with the financial markets in chaos," Edwards said.
The news reassured a council that nonetheless anticipates an upcoming budget crunch due to reduced tax revenues.
"What I heard is it's not as bad as it could be," said Council Chairwoman Jill Remington Love.
To be sure, the housing slump, liquidity crisis, bond defaults and tightening lending guidelines have hampered growth. Doug McDonald, an economist and consultant for the Utah League of Cities and Towns, says taxable sales are down 50 percent from last year while residential building permits are off 18 percent in the city, 35 percent countywide. By mid-year he said, new hires slid while unemployment claims shot up.
"We're going to be flat next year, but this doesn't account for all the financial stress if it continues."
Despite the overall enthusiasm, "For Lease" signs permeate downtown and its fringes, "For Sale" signs collect cobwebs on front yards, and longtime local merchants like a photo shop and a rug gallery on Main Street recently closed their doors after decades in business.
Still, out of 1,800 subprime mortgages recorded in the city, Wood notes just 7 percent are in foreclosure. But, he said the capital's average home sales prices are down 1.4 percent, pricey downtown condos could become temporary rentals, and Utah's second-largest homebuilder is in bankruptcy.
Betsy Burton, a Local First Utah board member, argued the city's best investment would be in local businesses. She called on the council to let Local First representatives have input on key boards as well as Redevelopment Agency decisions.
"You have a sympathetic council here," assured J.T. Martin.
Bob Farrington, the city's new economic development director, said the downturn should create opportunities. He outlined the capital's plan to trot out a small-business initiative that streamlines the permit process.
He and Gray also pledged to upgrade ordinances, improve the city's business climate, tap lending programs for businesses, and boost the city's marketing.
And, despite the slowdown, the team is targeting specific projects that include: A Broadway theater, foreign trade zone, streetcar system, convention hotel, public market, new energy companies, developed transit hub, North Temple corridor and neighborhood business districts.
The city's economic development braintrust conceded their staff is meager, but insisted everyone in the division is effectively part of the team.
djensen@sltrib.com
