Olivia Bramble and fiancé, Jeff Hall, are among this new breed of homebuyer. The couple are looking for a home in the downtown area, but are taking their time, with the goal of buying around the time the market hits bottom.

"I want to get the best deal I can," Bramble said.

But when will home prices stop falling, and should buyers wait for that to happen? Or should they take advantage of comparatively low interest rates and buy now?

There are no easy answers because there are so many variables facing buyers as they navigate troubled waters littered by failing banks and multibillion-dollar bailouts on the one hand, and enticing incentives that might not last long on the other.

One thing is for sure. Timing the real estate market, just like the stock market, is tough, and buying at the absolute bottom is extremely difficult.

"Once you start hearing the market is turning around you've probably lost the opportunity," said Bramble's real estate agent, Adam Kirkham. "When it turns around, it's going to turn around quickly."

Real estate agents, no surprise, insist it's a great time to buy, even as foreclosures mount and doubts about the economy grow. "Rates are low and buyers are motivated - that's a great combination," Kirkham said. And although lending standards are much tighter, loans are still available for those with good credit, even for first-time homebuyers, who also are eligible for a $7,500 tax credit if they buy by July 1 of next year.

There are certainly deals to be had, not only in existing homes - where sellers are throwing in cash bonuses and offering to cover closing costs - but in new ones, as well. Hard-pressed builders are offering all kinds of incentives to get business, including slashing home prices by tens of thousands of dollars and adding in finished basements, appliances and other options at no cost. For buyers who use an affiliate lender, many builders are covering all closing costs. All those incentives will begin to disappear when the market improves, though when that will be no one is certain.

Kirkham said many buyers also can use the upcoming winter months to their advantage. "We are entering into the winter, which is traditionally a slower time. So the next three or four months could be the best opportunity of all to buy."

But complicating the buy-now or buy-later decision is the fact that different segments of the market recover at different times. Sales of some lower-priced homes may already be on the brink of bouncing back.

Wells Fargo & Co. economist Kelly Matthews said homes priced at less than $300,000 - especially $200,000 or under - have probably already declined in value as much as they are going to in this downturn. That means homebuyers in this price range are probably the least likely to see the value of their purchase decline after they buy it.

Those who buy higher-priced homes - especially properties above $600,000 - are more at risk of having their investment drop in value if they buy now.

Matthews, who tracks the real estate market locally, has predicted an overall home-price "correction" of as much as 20 percent. He thinks prices have fallen only about 7 percent so far and will fall more through 2009 and even into 2010 - with most of the pain being felt at the higher price ranges. Economic forecasting firm Moody's Economy.com agrees that Utah's residential real estate market could continue to be weak through next year and into 2010.

Most agree the market peaked late last year after nearly four years of home-price run-ups had priced many buyers out of the market. Tighter lending standards put in place after the nation's subprime lending crisis also reduced the pool of available buyers, pushing home sales, and then selling prices, lower. Many would-be buyers no longer can qualify for loans; and even those who can are spooked.

So what will it take for prices to stabilize and the real estate market locally to turn around? Matthews believes several things have to fall in place.

The national economy, for starters, has to show improvement and the financial crisis must begin to abate, he said.

Utah's economy and its population and job growth must continue to hold up - meaning people must continue to move into the state and companies must keep creating jobs.

If all that falls into place, by the end of next year or early 2010, the real estate market along the Wasatch Front should begin to show more signs of life, and sales and prices will stop falling.

Homebuyer Bramble doesn't want to wait that long. She said she will keep looking through the winter for just that reason. She has her eye on a home originally listed for $469,000 that has since been reduced to $389,000.

"I feel confident giving them a low offer," she said. "If they don't take it, we'll keep looking. I want to find that desperate seller."

lesley@sltrib.com

Should I buy now?

Buying a home along the Wasatch Front and having it fall in value is probably a risk buyers will have to bear for at least another year, maybe even two, experts say. But some buyers are more at risk than others, says Wells Fargo & Co. economist Kelly Matthews.

* Those buying homes for less than $300,000 - especially $200,000 or under - are probably the least likely to see the value of their purchase decline. Demand is highest in that price range.

* Those who buy higher-priced homes - especially properties above $600,000 - are more at risk of seeing values fall because there are fewer buyers in this range. Negotiating the lowest price possible can help reduce the risk.