Poll: Win West, get the rest
This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2008, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

The path to the presidency winds through the Rocky Mountain states, bringing unprecedented attention to a region that until recently was overlooked by national politicians.

Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain have spent considerable time and a chunk of money to win over Utah's neighbors - Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado - considered by many political observers to be key battlegrounds.

But in this traditionally right-leaning region, Obama's campaign has been downright audacious, making a play for Montana, McCain's

home state of Arizona and even overwhelmingly Republican Utah.

This week, the Democratic Party will step up its recent love affair

with the Intermountain West as delegates gather in Denver for their

national convention.

The location isn't a coincidence. The party is trying to

capitalize on what Time Magazine had dubbed the "purplification of

the West," where Democratic gains in gubernatorial, Senate and House

races suddenly make the region politically competitive.

Since President Bush took office, Democrats in Colorado have won

the governor's mansion, a Senate seat, most of the House seats and

control of the state Legislature.

Five of the eight Intermountain states have elected Democratic

governors since 2000.

And for the first time in a generation, registered Democrats

outnumber Republicans in Nevada, prompting Senate Majority Leader

Harry Reid to remark: "A few years ago, that would be unthinkable."

Reid, a Democrat, believes the candidate who wins the West wins the

White House. Utah's GOP Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. agrees.

If that's the case, Obama still has some catching up to do,

according to a newly released survey conducted by Washington,

D.C.-based Mason Dixon Research in mid-August. The poll was

commissioned by The Salt Lake Tribune, The Denver Post and other

Western newspapers.

Colorado is the only one of the six states where Obama is ahead,

but his 3-percentage-point advantage is within the 5-point margin of

error.

McCain has his biggest lead in Utah, where 62 percent of

respondents said they would vote for him, even higher than his home

state of Arizona, where 47 percent back McCain.

The pollster contacted 400 likely voters in each state and found

that voters across the West have a more favorable view of McCain and

trust him more on issues ranging from the economy to energy. Obama

had the edge on only environmental issues.

To keep his lead, Huntsman said McCain simply "needs to be who he

is, which is a maverick Westerner."

"Yeah he's a Western senator, an Arizona senator, but one who has

been working in D.C. for an awfully long time," counters Arizona Gov.

Janet Napolitano, a Democrat who said Obama's call for a more

inclusive, less ideological politics will attract Western voters.

Obama's Chicago roots may be hard for some in the region to

overlook.

"I still think for many Westerners any Democrat from east of the

Mississippi is kind of assumed to be a big-government Democrat," said

Daniel Kemmis, a senior fellow at the University of Montana's Center

for the Rocky Mountain West.

Western Democrats have cultivated their own image, describing

themselves as "rugged individualists," a tired term evoking images of

lonely mountain men braving the wilderness.

But left-leaning governors and political analysts say the term

embodies the arms-length distance they try to keep from the political

establishment. They view Democrats in the West as less partisan, less

tied to litmus-test issues such as abortion or gay rights, and less

reliant on a strong party organization with entrenched power players.

They label themselves libertarian Democrats, centrists and

pragmatists.

"We're likely to like having a few guns, and how many? Well, that's

none of your damn business," said Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer.

Rather than being staunch environmentalists, Colorado Gov. Bill

Ritter said Western Democrats are more at ease with old economy

trades like mining, balancing the need for energy with concerns about

the land.

"We, you know, look at issues like oil and gas activity and we're

not of the mind-set that it should all cease and desist," he said.

Adding all of this together, Democrats in the region have created

a no-nonsense problem-solving persona, according to Kemmis, a former

Democratic mayor of Missoula, Mont.

In recent elections, that image has translated into victories,

which makes the region particularly key for Obama's chances in

November.

To win the White House, Obama must redraw the Electoral College map,

flipping states that Bush previously won, which includes not only the

West, but also all of the Plains states and the South.

With those choices, Tom Schaller, political scientist for the

University of Maryland-Baltimore County, says the Dems should head

west.

Schaller is the author of the book Whistling Past Dixie, which

suggests a political strategy that has Democrats ignoring the South,

where conservative moral positions on issues such as abortion make it

difficult for them to win.

"Democrats win votes out West without entirely compromising

themselves as a party," he said.

The West is also the fastest growing region of the country. Utah,

Nevada and Arizona are seeing their populations swell with Hispanic

families and California transplants bringing their own political

philosophy to the area.

These new Westerners will add political clout and Electoral

College votes in the years to come, which means the Democratic love

affair with the West may last far beyond this presidential contest.

mcanham@sltrib.com

gehrke@sltrib.com

Parties agree: Road to White House runs up, over the Rocky Mountains
Article Tools

Photos
Enter a search phrase.

Specify a Range

From  to

 

 
Missing your paper? Need to place your paper on vacation hold? For this and any other subscription related needs, click here or call 801.204.6100.