''I've noticed there is a ton of stuff on sale,'' said Barbara Friedman, who was shopping Thursday with a friend, Evelyn Hatfield, at Lord & Taylor in Midtown Manhattan. They were marveling at discounts as high as 50 percent in stores they visited.

Retailers deny that the gloomy economic landscape has prompted them to offer deeper and earlier discounts this summer than in previous years. But industry analysts and those who study marketing and consumer behavior say the stores have an incentive to pretend nothing is amiss, even as they post eye-popping sale signs to try to move merchandise.

''The sales are very aggressive,'' said Marshal Cohen, the chief industry analyst at the NPD Group. ''They're trying to lure whatever dollar is available as quickly as they can get it.''

With consumer confidence at a 16-year low, retailers are clearly under pressure. A truer picture of the retailer situation should emerge next week when the big chains report sales numbers for June.

For now, Kathy Grannis, a spokeswoman for the National Retail Federation, a trade group, acknowledges only that sales to unload summer gear and make way for fall merchandise are ''creeping up a little earlier'' than in the past.

''It's so early,'' said Kit Yarrow, a consumer psychologist in San Francisco who has been noticing a proliferation of sales throughout department and specialty stores. ''They keep an eye on each other. This year they're in a panic to make sure they're the first one.''

Rarely have consumers been this tight. Personal savings as a percentage of disposable personal income jumped to 5 percent in May, up from 0.4 percent in April.

If shoppers splurge it will likely be on only one item this summer, Yarrow said, rather than three or four.

Half of the inventory at Ann Taylor Loft is on sale and shoppers can take an additional 20 percent off their entire purchase. Merchandise is up to 50 percent off at J. Crew, Banana Republic, Old Navy and the Body Shop.

J.C. Penney's ''lowest prices of the summer'' sale ended before the first Fourth of July fireworks started. Customers buying one towel or T-shirt could get a second for 88 cents.

David Wyss, chief economist at Standard and Poor's, said many retailers are still hoping to grab a share of consumers' stimulus checks by offering tempting promotions. The last wave of checks will be mailed no later than next week. In May, retailers selling anything other than fuel or food barely saw an uptick from the checks, though electronics were an exception.

''That's because when the average guy opens an $800 rebate check it looks a lot like a large-screen television set,'' Wyss said.

When June sales at stores open at least a year, known as same-store sales and a barometer of retail health, are announced next week, analysts expect the results to be spotty, though not gloom and doom.