Floods ravage crop, may rush food cost hike
This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2008, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Get ready for food prices to shoot up again.

Even though disaster assistance workers will have to wait for high water to subside across millions of acres in Iowa and other parts of the Midwest before assessing the damage from the worst flooding in more than a half-century, the numbers linked to lost crops are already coming in, creating their own flood-like pressure on food-price inflation.

The bushel price of September corn, which had already reached record levels, jumped another 11 percent last week, fueled in part by news that 10 percent of Iowa's corn crop - about 1.3 million acres - has been lost to flooding or the inability to plant because of poor weather. Soybean losses, according to the Iowa Farm Bureau, are about 20 percent, or about 2 million acres.

That's on top of losses in Wisconsin and other states.

It's too soon to say what the price impact will be, according to analysts, but dramatic production cuts in two key commodities increase the likelihood that consumers will be paying more for milk, meat, bread and poultry. Perhaps a lot more.

''Given the flooding we see today, we're likely to see prices go significantly higher,'' said Chad Hart, an agriculture economist at Iowa State University. ''This is a significant event. We were already having production issues before this occurred, all across the Midwest."

Some of that anticipated price increase has already been factored into the price of corn, which was about $6 a bushel at the end of May but has since shot up to $7.46 a bushel, according to the Chicago Board of Trade.

''This is not just a short-term problem,'' said Joe Victor, vice president of marketing for Allendale Inc.

Nor is it one that can be blamed solely on the extraordinary flooding in Iowa and other areas. Rising world demand for food commodities, a shift to produce ethanol from corn and a swooning American dollar gave birth to stunning increases in corn prices. Worldwide, commodity prices were 43 percent higher in April than a year earlier, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.

Price pressures accelerated when the spring planting across the Midwest - especially in Indiana and Illinois - was delayed because of cold and wet weather. Before the flooding, the U.S. Department of Agriculture last week reduced its forecast for corn production, adding more pressure. The USDA report said 89 percent of the corn crop had sprouted, below the five-year average of 95 percent. The later the corn is planted, the more susceptible it is to heat damage in the summer.

The flooding made it worse. And when barge traffic on the Mississippi River was shut down last week, stopping grain deliveries, that aggravated the situation further. Little wonder the price of corn leaped.

Now analysts who said they could never envision corn selling for $7 a bushel say they wouldn't be surprised to see it reach $8 or $9 a bushel, perhaps higher.

''This ranks up in the top two or three most disrupted years in corn and soybean production,'' said Dave Miller, director of research and commodity services for the Iowa Farm Bureau.

A study issued last week by the former chief economist of ConAgra Foods predicted U.S. food prices may rise 9 percent a year through 2012, as biofuel production depletes corn supplies. Last month the USDA said food prices could jump as much as 5 1/2 percent this year, the highest rate since 1989.

There may be some temporary relief, particularly with pork and beef prices, Miller said. If livestock producers choose to take hogs and cattle to slaughter rather than pay the higher price for corn to feed their animals, that could bring the price down, Miller said. But over the long term, inflationary pressures will prevail.

Iowa State's Hart said it is too soon to compare the anticipated crop loss this year to the 1993 flood or the 1983 drought.

''In 1983 we saw corn prices go up 40 percent. The market has factored in some [price increases], which is why we're seeing $7 corn. But what if we have a significant production loss? If all the crop doesn't get through, could we approach $9 corn? Yeah. Could it be $10? Yeah, it could.''

Utah spared from flood backlash

Utah farmers probably won't be affected by flooding in the Midwest because they grow most of their own corn crop, which in turn, goes to the state's No. 1 agricultural industry: livestock.

But Utah growers cannot step in to make up for the national shortfall because the planting season here is long past, said Larry Lewis, spokesman for the Utah Department of Agriculture and Food.

"With less supply, demand will increase prices across the board," he added.

Utah's corn crop is comparatively small (39th nationally), while in the top two states, Iowa and Illinois, farmers are beset by the flooding aftermath. Utah's corn for silage production is No. 23, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Production cuts may mean that consumers will be paying more for milk, meat, bread and poultry
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