In fact, rates for 30-year mortgages could ease a bit going into the prime home-buying season of spring and summer - perhaps even falling below 6 percent, said Jeff Thredgold, a Zions Bank consultant. Thredgold spoke Tuesday at the Utah Commercial Real Estate Symposium at the Hilton Salt Lake City Center.

"Rates [for a 30-year loan] could be back as low as the high-5 percent to low-6 percent range by summer," he said.

Nationally, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.3 percent at the end of last week, up slightly from 6.2 percent the previous week, according to mortgage company Freddie Mac. As recently as December, rates were about 6 percent.

In Utah, the average 30-year loan rate appears to be slightly higher, with many lenders advertising rates around 6.5 percent.

Many Utahns are especially concerned with mortgage rates these days because of the marked increase in the price of houses along the Wasatch Front over the past two years.

Higher prices have made it more difficult for low- to moderate-income families to buy a house. Moderating those increases in home values, however, has been a slight decline in interest rates that began in September 2006.

But in recent weeks, rates on the popular 30-year mortgage have been moving higher, and higher interest rates mean higher monthly payments.

The monthly payment of principal and interest on a $300,000 home loan at 6 percent, for example, is just under $1,800. The monthly payment on the same amount at 7 percent would be nearly $2,000.

In some cases, families who qualify for a home loan at 6 percent might not qualify for the same amount at 7 percent.

Jonathon and Tiffany Andrews of Clinton said they have been very concerned about mortgage rates in recent weeks as they have looked for a new house in Roy. And they were relieved to lock in weeks ago at around 6 percent for a 30-year mortgage.

"Had rates been a bit higher, we definitely would not have been able to afford the house we got," Jonathon Andrews said.

Even among economists who expect mortgage rates to edge up by the end of the year, few are raising the possibility of rates broaching 7 percent, which last occurred in 2002.

In his forecast for 2007, Doug Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, said there is a possibility that 30-year home loans nationally may rise to an average of 6.5 percent by the third quarter of this year. But even that rate, he notes, is "quite low" by historical standards.

lesley@sltrib.com