Kelly K. Matthews, executive vice president and economist for Wells Fargo, said there are few signs of any speculative excesses in the Utah economy. And that bodes well for the months ahead.

"If we look at the state's population growth, the jobs being created, the number of new housing units and the level of retail spending, everything appears to be in equilibrium," Matthews said. "And that means we're still in a pretty good [economic] environment."

Matthews is projecting that Utah's population growth, which many sectors of the state's economy are counting on to provide employees to fill available job openings, will reach 79,000 people in 2006. That 3.1 percent increase will be approximately the same as last year.

Utah's second-half job growth, which Matthews projects at 4.5 percent, will remain strong but might ease below the 4.7 percent increase achieved in the January -July 2006 period. He expects 3.4 percent of Utahns will be without jobs in the last half of the year, or about the same as during the first six months.

Single-family building permits for the past six months are expected to decrease 7 percent, or 747 permits, below the second half of 2005. Yet the 2006 projected annual total of 20,330 permits will be close to last year's strong pace.

Mark Knold, senior economist for the Utah Department of Workforce Services, said the construction industry is the one sector where he consistently hears there is a shortage of labor. Yet that in no way signals the sector is reaching the point where overbuilding is a problem.

And Matthew's projections support that notion.

"Real estate sales, home price appreciation, declining delinquency and foreclosure rates all indicate that the state's housing supply and demand remain in balance," Matthews said.

He noted that historically there have been 2.5 Utahns and 1.7 jobs for every additional new housing unit built, a ratio that continues today and suggests there is no excess housing.

Matthews also is projecting that retail sales will increase 10 percent in 2006, a number that he argues is consistent with a 4.5 percent employment increase and an expected 4.2 percent average monthly wage increase for the year.

steve@sltrib.com