Skyrocketing oil prices rein in growth in U.S. economy
This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2006, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Every Monday morning Dean England, chief executive of his family-owned trucking company in Salt Lake City, visits the Energy Department's Web site and checks the latest average cost of a gallon of diesel fuel. If it is up enough, he raises the charge to haul produce across the country in his tractor-trailers.

A formula has evolved. For every 5-cent rise in the price of fuel, C.R. England Inc. adds 1 percent to its freight rates. Since 2003, those rates are up 37 percent, yet demand has not slackened. The company's 2,900 trucks are constantly on the road.

''The market has been good to us,'' England said. ''But ultimately the extra cost of hauling food has to fall on the consumer.''

Demand is similarly strong at other energy-dependent operations, notably railroads, airlines and chemical companies. They, too, are raising prices to recapture as much as they can of the run-up in oil prices.

That is gradually adding to the inflation rate and appears to be contributing to a slowdown in growth - but it has not crippled the economy.

''As oil prices rise, a noose does tighten around the expansion,'' said Nigel Gault, chief domestic economist for Global Insight.

Gault estimates that rising energy prices are shaving 1 to 1.5 percentage points from the economy's annual growth rate, which is one reason that he expects it to slow from the robust 5.6 percent rate of the first quarter to roughly 3 percent for the rest of the year.

''I'm guessing that if oil gets to $100 a barrel, that could provoke a recession,'' Gault said, ''but even then it depends on how quickly we get there. We do seem to be adjusting to gradual increases.''

The $8 run-up two weeks ago to $78 a barrel as violence spread in the Middle East was hardly gradual. But prices did fall back last week, to the mid-$70s range, and the Energy Department forecasts that West Texas intermediate crude oil, a benchmark grade, will finish the year at $73.50 a barrel, up $8 from January.

Whatever the energy costs, many companies have managed to absorb much of the price shock and preserve profits, which have risen to record levels recently as a share of national income. The companies have done this by raising prices and instituting efficiencies that reduce the use of petroleum and natural gas.

Consumers have not fared as well. Rising gasoline prices constitute what economists sometimes describe as a consumption tax. When such a tax is imposed on millions of workers whose incomes have not kept up with inflation in recent years, those consumers eventually cut back on spending. That is one reason economists see a slowdown coming.

The total bill for oil consumers is expected to rise as much as $125 billion this year, compared with 2005, estimated Larry Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, an energy consulting firm in New York.

The increased caution in spending is becoming evident in the weekly consumer surveys conducted by the University of Michigan. Those surveyed seem to be losing faith that oil prices can be checked, now that the average price of a gallon of gasoline has reached $3.03, up 75 cents since January.

''For a long time people anticipated that gas prices would fall back, so they ran up more debt to cover their higher expenses without cutting back on purchases,'' said Richard Curtin, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan. ''And now they have reluctantly concluded, in the past three or four months, that gasoline prices are not going to go down.''

But cutbacks in spending have been concentrated almost entirely among households with less than $50,000 in annual income, according to Curtin's surveys. That is roughly half of all households. Most of those with incomes above $50,000, who contribute to the bulk of consumer spending, are still absorbing the higher energy costs without cutting back much elsewhere. ''Rising gasoline prices are really driving a wedge between lower- and higher-income households,'' Curtin said.

Companies often have more room to maneuver than do average consumers. Railroads, for example, are operating at high levels of capacity, mostly in transporting ever greater amounts of coal to electric utilities. That has given them the leverage to raise rates sufficiently to cover 75 percent of their increased cost of diesel fuel, said Philip Baggaley, a managing director and transportation analyst at Standard & Poor's.

Even food companies are getting into the act as higher energy costs work through the food chain. Kellogg will raise its cereal prices by about 2 percent in September, the first price increase since July 2004, said Neal Goldner, director of investor relations.

On the other hand, chemical companies are getting a break on natural gas. Petroleum and natural gas are often interchangeable feed stocks in the production of the chemical ingredients that go into foam for cushions, solvents for dry cleaning and plastic for bottles, as well as other products.

Although oil prices have remained high, natural gas has become less expensive this summer. That is mainly because a milder-than-expected winter has left the nation with huge unsold inventories of natural gas that cannot easily be shipped around the world, as oil is.

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