The economic forecast for 2006 from the University of Utah's Bureau of Economic and Business Research is for the rate of growth to slow down from 2005's pace. Nevertheless, 2006 is expected to be a solid year, according to a consortium of Utah economists.
The only declines next year are expected to be in net in-migration, down from a 120 percent jump this year to minus 13.5 percent; vehicle sales, predicted to decline 2 percent; and sales of new residential units. They are likely to decrease about 3.7 percent from this year, said bureau director Jim Wood.
But the most important factor - consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of Utah's economy - shows consumers remain confident, he noted.
"The forecast may be better than when it was prepared six weeks ago," added Wood, the report's author. "Gasoline prices have gone down since then and we've had a fairly mild winter, so heating bills should be less than anticipated. At any rate, we'll be strong nationally and leaders in the region."
For instance, retail sales in September showed an increase of 15.6 percent over the same month a year go, according to the most recent available data. Furniture sales were the hottest item, posting a 21.9 percent gain. New vehicle sales cooled, but still increased by 5.3 percent.
Salt Lake County sales receipts increased by 14.2 percent or $170 million, compared to September of 2004. In addition, Washington County showed a strong increase of 27.2 percent or $38 million.
Other indicators, when compared to 2005, show that next year:
* The state's population will increase from 2.47 million to 2.54 million.
* Average annual pay will rise from $32,890 to $34,002.
* Total wages are expected to total $40.2 billion, up from $37.6 billion.
* Unemployment rates will decrease from 4.7 percent to 4.5 percent.
* And the number of new resident units will decline from 27,000 to 26,000.
The report, commissioned by the Salt Lake City brokerage firm Commerce CRG, is used to project state tax revenue by the Utah State Tax Commission and Governor's Office of Planning and Budget.
house@sltrib.com
