Central American families earn cents for a full day's work of picking

the crop.

Coffee prices may rise to a six-year high in 2005 after outpacing major commodities during the past year, a Bloomberg survey found. Smaller crops in Brazil and the growing appetite for lattes may spur the increase.

The price of arabica coffee futures listed on the New York Board of Trade, the world's biggest coffee exchange, will average $1 a pound in 2005, based on the median estimate of 11 analysts and roasters. That's 30 percent higher than 2004. The futures are benchmarks for coffee sold by Procter & Gamble Co.'s Folgers and Kraft Foods Inc.'s Maxwell House brands.

Coffee futures jumped 60 percent in the past year, more than commodities including crude oil, sugar, copper and hogs. Suppliers were squeezed by rising demand from Starbucks Corp. and other buyers at the same time the outlook deteriorated for crops in Brazil, Vietnam and Indonesia. Those countries account for 48 percent of global coffee-bean exports.

''I wasn't a believer in this market until about two weeks ago,'' said Nicholas Becharas, president of Highland Park, Mich.-based Becharas Brothers Coffee Co., which sells about 2.5 million pounds of coffee a year to restaurants and the U.S. Navy. ''The roasters are caught a little bit here and need to buy.''

Coffee futures on Dec. 21 reached $1.087 a pound, the highest since July 2000. The 2004 average was 77.12 cents, up 23 percent from 2003. The peak in 2005 will be $1.275, the median of 10 forecasts in the Bloomberg survey. Prices haven't been that high since December 1999.

Global coffee consumption this year reached an estimated 118 million bags, up 2.4 percent, German research company F.O. Licht said Dec. 23. Demand in the U.S., the world's biggest coffee consumer, surged 9.2 percent in 2003, the latest figures available from the U.S. Agriculture Department.

Seattle-based Starbucks, the world's largest coffee-shop chain, boosted U.S. prices by 11 cents a cup in October, the first increase in four years. Sales at coffee shops open at least a year rose 13 percent in November, the biggest gain in nine months.

''It's a growing product in the U.S. because more people are looking for a better beverage,'' said Randy Layton, vice president of coffee operations at Portland, Ore.-based Boyd Coffee Co. ''Beans that make up better coffee are becoming more difficult to find.''

Dry weather associated with El Nino may have contributed to reduced production in Brazil and Vietnam, said Michael McDougall, a trader at Fimat USA Inc. Vietnam's crop was down 9.9 percent from a record 14.2 million bags in 2003, F.O. Licht said.

Coffee prices fell from 1998 to 2001 as larger crops worldwide overwhelmed demand from roasters. Prices touched a 30-year low of 42.7 cents a pound in October 2001 as Brazil's crop headed for a record 63.8 million bags of coffee in 2002.

Low prices discouraged farmers from planting new trees or taking care of existing plants, leading to reduced production in Central America and Africa, U.S. Agriculture Department reports said.

It takes 2.5 years after a coffee bean sprout is planted for the tree to produce coffee, McDougall said. A grower can boost production as much as 20 percent in a year by taking better care of the trees, he said.

German trading company Neumann Kaffee Gruppe said dry weather in recent years has contributed to ''serious damage'' to Brazil's coffee trees.

Brazil, the world's biggest grower of beans, is expected to produce 31 million to 33 million bags in 2005, down from 38.6 million. A bag of coffee weighs about 132 pounds.