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Utah is growing and it will become more multicultural.
That's just what's going to happen, said Pamela Perlich, a senior research economist at the University of Utah.
What should really be a concern is that as baby boomers -- the majority of the audience at the Utah Intergovernmental Roundtable Annual Summit -- grow older, they are going to rely on their own progeny and these new populations to work and support their retirements.
"What are these kids inheriting? The greatest demographic burden ever," Perlich told the group of elected officials and governmental workers at the Wednesday conference. The discussion was part of a larger forum to analyze how the economy will affect cities in the upcoming decades.
Perlich noted that apart from feeding into the Social Security and tax system, younger generations will be expected to pay off deficits and become more technologically innovative and creative so they can compete against other countries.
One of the largest hurdles facing Utah's future success in this arena is the achievement gap affecting young, ethnic minorities -- people who will be expected to contribute to the well-being of the economy.
"If that's a small part of the population, people can ignore it," Perlich said of the attitude toward minority achievement gaps. "But as that's becoming the majority, if we truly want a good future for our state, those kids are our key."
Basically, kids who drop out and
The state will need to focus on its policies addressing affordable housing and education to help more students do well in school and thereby attain the economic success that helps them be self-sufficient and contribute to their communities, she said.
That could mean longer school days, longer school years and maybe more one-on-one interactions with school volunteers, she said.
But public leaders need to stop planning for the homogenous population growth they saw growing up, Perlich added, and address this envisioned future that includes more refugees and immigrants.
Utah has the benefit of being behind in growth of other states, she said, and local officials can look at other areas, like California, and see what can result from ignoring a population.
"We have time to be preventative with these kids," Perlich said.
Dealing with Utah's changing populations will affect how cities and counties provide resources for residents, said Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon, who attended the summit. For one, there are language barriers, he noted.
"We gain a lot of culture," Corroon said, "but it makes providing services more difficult."
Though analysis shows that the recession has probably ended and that the economy is slowly improving, there will still be more struggling to recover from its effects, said Standard & Poor's chief economist David Wyss. And the process might take longer for cities.
"What people forget, is that tax lags the economy," Wyss said, noting that city budgets operate from tax revenue that is often collected several months after money is spent.
He told the crowd of city managers, mayors and council members collected at the roundtable summit to expect very slow growth next year, and to not see a significant improvement in their operating revenues until 2011 or 2012.
"Next year is going to be just as bad as this year," Wyss said, "or worse."
The recession might stretch longer for cities, and attendee Lyle Summers, a West Jordan City councilman, said that will require them to carefully consider low construction costs along with how that will affect city debt.
"You have to look at what projects you can put off," Summers said.
