Font ResizeWashington County is being slammed hardest by the recession. Cache, Daggett, Millard and Morgan counties are coping best. And the rest of Utah lies somewhere in the middle.
Overall, however, the state's 29 counties are in better shape than much of the country, according to The Associate Press' monthly analysis of economic stress in more than 3,100 U.S. counties.
The latest results of the AP's Economic Stress Index released Monday show the worst financial crisis since the 1930s causing lingering damage even as other signs suggest the recession is winding down.
The average county's Stress score nationwide, fueled by worsening unemployment, foreclosures and bankruptcies, rose to 10 in May, from 9.7 in April. It
In Utah, the 29 counties' scores averaged 6.87, slightly better than 6.89 in April, but considerably above 4.21 in May 2008.
While precise numbers for Utah counties weren't immediately available, it's clear Washington County, hit hard by falling home prices, foreclosures and rising unemployment, is Ground Zero in the state recession.
The county's economic stress score falls between 10 and 15. Cache, Daggett, Millard and Morgan counties, on the other hand, all lie below 5. The rest of the state is somewhere between 5 and 10.
"It was a speculative bubble, and when the economy popped, it hit us
The AP calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on each county's unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. The higher the score, the higher the economic stress.
In May, 36 percent of U.S. counties scored 11 or higher, up from 34 percent in April. But the latest reading was slightly better than February and March, when nearly 40 percent of counties were at or above that threshold.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and many other economists predict the recession will end later this year. Even if it does, unemployment, foreclosures and bankruptcies are likely to keep climbing and cause further harm in many communities, economists predict.
"Everybody looks at the unemployment rate (to get a picture of how tough times are). I look at the job losses," Mark Knold senior economist at the Utah Department of Workforce Services, said.
"Our monthly numbers in the survey we put out are showing us being down about 3½ percent. But we've got some data now for the first quarter that suggest the job losses are deeper. The job losses are more like in the 4
In Washington County, job numbers increased 25 percent during the boom construction years of 2004-2006. When the crash came, unemployment soared. In May, the number of jobs in the county was off by 10 percent.
The increase was "unsustainable," Knold said. "You know there is going to be a counterbalance to that in the future, and obviously we are living that now."
Some of the hardest-stressed counties are in states like Arizona, California and Nevada. Jeff Thredgold, a consulting economist for Salt Lake City-based Zions Bancorp, said Washington County's housing market performed more like Phoenix, Las Vegas and other Sunbelt areas than the Wasatch Front. So it is no surprise that Washington County's pain was greater when the housing bust happened, he said.
On the other hand, Cache, Daggett, Millard and Morgan counties did not see the rapid growth that Washington County or counties along the Wasatch Front experienced, Thredgold said.
"If you don't have a boom, then you don't have a bust," he said.
Many economists say the recession eased from April to June and that the economy might start growing again as soon in the current July-to-September quarter.
Among states, California, Michigan and South Carolina showed the most economic stress in May, with their counties' scores averaging 16, 15.9 and 15, respectively.
California has been battered by the housing collapse, and Michigan has absorbed the brunt of the auto industry crisis.
"And South Carolina is a little bit of everything," said Sean Snaith, economics professor at the University of Central Florida. "Manufacturing and construction jobs have been hard hit in the state.'
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
