County by county, recession's grip eases in April

The economy's tailspin gave way to a more controlled descent in the spring, according to The Associated Press' monthly analysis of economic stress in more than 3,100 U.S. counties. Still, troubles persist in California related to the housing bust and in the Midwest, pounded by manufacturing layoffs.

The latest results of the AP's Economic Stress Index show the recession that hit with force in autumn 2008 and winter 2009 eased in April as seasonal hiring picked up, helping offset rising bankruptcies and foreclosures. Still, the analysis found that economic pain remains high, compared with year-ago levels.

The AP calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on each county's rate of unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy, with

lower numbers indicating less economic pain. The average Stress score dipped to 9.7 in April, from 10.3 in March. In April 2008, the national average was 5.9.

April's results "are saying we are very close to the low point in this recession," said Mark Vitner, an economist at Wachovia. "The worst is past, but that doesn't mean the troubles are over."

A county is considered stressed when its score jumps past 11. Other than Washington County, all of Utah's counties scored 10 or less. In February and March, nearly 40 percent of the nation's counties were at or above that threshold. In April, 34 percent scored 11 or higher.

The five highest Stress scores in April were in California's inland valleys, which were the hotbed of the housing bubble and bust. And three out of the five biggest annual increases in stress were northern Indiana counties that have been devastated by manufacturing cutbacks.

Though the economy shed hundreds of thousands of jobs in April, seasonal hiring in some counties helped lower the average stress score.

Compared month-to-month, the unemployment rate dipped in more than 80 percent of the nation's 3,141 counties in April from March. But the figures aren't seasonally adjusted, so monthly comparisons are volatile. Hiring, for instance, typically picks up in the spring with longer days and better weather.

Still, all but 23 counties endured higher unemployment in April 2009 than a year earlier. Job losses in manufacturing, construction, retail and financial activities led the deterioration.

Foreclosure rates inched up in April from the previous year in half the counties nationwide. And from March to April, they rose in 42 percent of the counties, particularly in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona. Most counties in Utah also saw a jump.

The biggest increases nationally occurred on the outskirts of cities where affordable new housing had driven up growth in the past decade -- Pinal County, Ariz., near Phoenix; Nye County, Nev., near Las Vegas; Osceola County, Fla., south of Orlando; and Madera County, Calif., north of Fresno.

In April, bankruptcy rates rose in more than four-fifths of the nation's counties, from both the previous year and the previous month. The largest gains were in areas of Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee, as well as California's Riverside County and Nevada's Nye County.

Unemployment appears to be showing greater influence on foreclosures and bankruptcies, according to the AP's analysis. In Nevada, layoffs in the gaming industry appear to be contributing to rising foreclosures,. The outer suburb of Las Vegas saw the nation's largest percentage increase in foreclosures from March to April: Almost 1 percentage point, to nearly 6.3 percent.