As the United States spirals into an all but certain recession, Utah will be a good place to ride out the storm, a prominent economist suggested Wednesday.

The state isn't riddled with foreclosed properties and home prices haven't collapsed. Business-friendly Utah's jobless rate is half the U.S. rate. And while Utah unemployment is growing, it trails the rest of the country, said Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics, a Cleveland-area forecasting firm.

"If you look at the picture of where the foreclosure problems are, what you find is that this area has largely been able to not become involved in all the greed, the speculation and the fraud associated with the mortgage problems such as was the case in places like California, Nevada and Florida and Nevada," he said.

"Seems people have values here that they don't have elsewhere. People actually believe in paying back the money they have borrowed. Imagine that," said Mayland, who spoke at a KeyBank-sponsored breakfast at The Grand America Hotel in Salt Lake City.

Mayland's "cautiously optimistic" forecast cheered Salt Lake stock broker Jim Snow, one of 400 business people who attended the breakfast.

"I don't know if I totally agree, but I don't think [the economy] is as bad as everybody says it is," Snow said.

Home foreclosures, coupled with rising energy prices and falling home prices, lie at the heart of the recession, Mayland said. Foreclosures helped create the credit crisis and undercut consumer spending, while profit-draining oil price spikes compelled employers to cut hiring and curb capital spending. Both led spooked investors to flee the stock market, he said.

Oil prices have retreated since peaking at $147 per barrel in July, but the damage done by rising prices ensures the country won't be spared from recession. Even so, the worst may be over for the economy, said Mayland.

"There are some economists going around saying that this will be a severe recession, this will be a long recession. I'm not willing to go that far," he said.

Mayland said the decline of new housing starts is at levels reached during earlier recessions, suggesting they have found the bottom. Meanwhile, home prices have become more affordable, leading him to think buyers may return by next summer.

Similarly, the ratio of credit card debt to income has been declining for several years and auto sales show signs of stabilizing at roughly 11 million units a year.

"If that's right, then again, most of the decline in autos is behind us, not in front of us," Mayland said.

Most companies, meanwhile, are entering the recession with "very very strong" balance sheets and aren't swamped with unsold inventories. Banks are lending to creditworthy borrowers, monetary policies enacted by the Federal Reserve and other central banks are beginning to gain traction, and it's likely Congress will pass a big stimulus bill early next year, he said.

"This recession is not going to be as mild as the two previous ones, which were the mildest recessions seen ever … But we won't see the worst recession because of a lot of the correction associated with recession, is already behind us. It's not in front of us," Mayland said."

Only commercial construction seems to face deeper problems, he said.

Said Clay Rigby, who bought a millworking company in Ogden seven months ago, "I did agree with the majority of everything he said. Indications are the economy will recover, but at a slow rate."

Rigby said customers are still placing orders for his hardwood doors and custom moldings.

"We seem to be holding our own right now," he said.