Utah retailers see sales drop, anxiety level rise
This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2008, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.

Amid signs the credit crisis is spilling into the broader economy, a monthly barometer of Utah small-business conditions is at its lowest point since 2001, Zions Bank said Tuesday.

"By definition, it's tougher to run a small business right now. If you are a small business geared toward retail sales you've got this tremendous level of anxiety in Utah's economy," said economist Jeff Thredgold, who prepares the Zions Bank Small Business Index.

The index, which looks at market conditions from the perspective of small business owners, stood at 85.9, down 30 percent since peaking in 2005 and at its lowest point in seven years.

"People are still buying cars. There just aren't as many of them as there have been in the past, and credit issues are becoming more commonplace," said Kevin Wilde, sales manager of Riverton Chevrolet in Sandy.

Said Robert Garff, CEO of Ken Garff Automotive Group, which has 38 automobile franchises in Utah: "Our local facilities are off closer to 10 percent. . . . As the banking crisis has deepened, it has affected the consumers' ability to borrow money and buy cars."

At the heart of the index's decline is slowing economic growth - locally, regionally, nationally and internationally - which is pushing up unemployment and eroding consumer spending.

In Utah, job growth - the best measure of a state's health - has all but stalled.

Across the country, the economy lost 159,000 jobs in September, the worst monthly decline in five years.

"Almost no job growth means less income creation, which means less retail spending," he said.

"We've seen a definite decrease," said Jenni Skaggs, a buyer for Richelle's Designer Shoes and Fashions in Salt Lake City. "I think the general sense is that customers are watching what they spend. They are definitely not buying as much as they had in the past."

Richelle's sales are off 20 percent this year. They had been ebbing since January, but the falloff began to accelerate in August. To date, sales are down about 20 percent from 2007. Skaggs also has decided to cut spending on the store's spring inventory by 40 percent.

Gastronomy Inc. has raised prices on the menus of its five restaurants by 2.6 percent to deal with sales that are off 4 percent and food prices that have risen almost 10 percent.

"The majority of that [menu increase] was on beverages. We are going to hold the line on price increases. And in holding the line, that's defined as manage, manage, manage," said Tom Guinney, one of Gastronomy's owners.

"There's a lot of angst out there. There's a reluctance to go out and put these charges on credit cards," Guinney said.

Thredgold said the Zions index is not designed to forecast where Utah's economy is heading. Even so, he doesn't think the index will go higher this year. It's more likely to head lower before turning upward again in the second quarter of 2009.

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