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The Utes know what is coming.
Oregon returned almost all of the key players from last year's Pac-12 championship and Elite Eight squad. Is more familiarity with their opponent an advantage in that situation? Larry Krystkowiak wouldn't call it that.
"I don't know if that's a positive," he said. "I'd probably take a little more well-oiled team and a veteran group."
While Utah came into the season as a batch of unknowns, the Ducks — winners of 16 straight games — have become the juggernaut most expected preseason. They've yet to lose a conference game despite dealing with injuries to arguably their two best players. They boast one of the best scoring lineups in the conference, one of the best shooting defenses and some great shot-blockers.
None of this is new to Utah, http://bit.ly/2j5RDp7";>which has been spanked by Oregon in the past. At the very least, Krystkowiak and his staff have studied their foes before. Can they come up with a winning game plan this time?
Time, Place and [radio waves in] Space • It's a late one: The tip is set for 8:30 p.m. MST at the Huntsman Center, the latest tip of the year at home and the second-latest in conference play. The game will be televised on Fox Sports 1 with Steve Lavin doing color. Bill and Jimmy have the call on the radio at ESPN 700. As of Wednesday afternoon, Utah athletics said fewer than 500 tickets remained — it seems to be set up for a sellout on Thursday night.
The Line • As of Thursday morning,http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/utah";> the Utes(!) are favored by 2.5 points according to Vegas Insider. Utah is 10-6-1 against the spread this season, having beaten the spread five straight times coming into this meeting.
Pregame Quotable • Larry Krystkowiak was asked if playing Oregon comes with more pressure because Utah is still looking http://bit.ly/2jUkX1L";>for a signature win for its NCAA Tournament resume: "You don't need that extra pressure. [If you think about] 'Man, we need that win,' you're thinking about the wrong stuff. How do we get that win? That's what we're focused on."
Opposing coach • A coach who has become a titan in the Pac-12 and whom Larry Krystkowiak called "a good friend" still seems to try to fly under the radar. But Dana Altman has won 21 or more games in all six of his previous seasons with the Ducks, making the NCAA Tournament the last four years. His next step, like a few other coaches in the conference, is hunting for a Final Four as he's putting together another top-10 caliber season. After Utah beat Arizona last year, Oregon now owns the longest win streak against the Utes with seven straight victories — every one coming under Altman.
Telling Stat • In each of Utah's three double-digit losses to Oregon last year, the Utes turned it over at least 14 or more times, accounting for at least 20 percent of possessions in those games. The total turnover margin in those three games for Utah was minus-19.
Ducks Roster Overview • Might as well work inside-out: The Oregon bigs are somewhat unconventional, but devastating defensively. Jordan Bell would be an elite shot-blocker in his own right, averaging 2.2 per contest. But Chris Boucher, checking in at 6-foot-10 and 200 pounds,http://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2016/12/15/13953584/oregon-chris-boucher-most-unique-weapon-college-basketball-nba-draft-2017";> has to be the best pound-for-pound swatter in the country. His string-bean build belies his ability to bounce in the post, and the duo has made it tough to score in the paint. Boucher can dunk, but he's potentially a knock down long-range shooter if he's left open at the 3-point line. Bell has upped his offensive game (11 ppg) this year after mostly serving as a putback guy. Oregon is also strong on the perimeter: Tyler Dorsey hasn't taken a sophomore leap, but he's still the same solid scorer and shooter that he was as a freshman. Adding Dylan Ennis has helped the ball movement and facilitation, and the kid can score, too. Payton Prichard was a highly touted freshman guard, Casey Benson is a deadeye shot from distance (44.7 percent), and Kavell Bigby-Williams was a JuCo All-American who now provides depth in the front court. While Oregon has five players who average in double figures, the ringleader in many senses is Dillon Brooks, the junior who has diced apart Utah in five meetings. At 6-foot-7, he can handle, he can drive and he can hit jumpers. He dropped 30 on the Utes last year. Should he be available, he'll be hard to stop. It's a concerning mixture: Oregon is the ninth-best team in field goal percentage defense (38.2 percent) but also ranks 34th in shooting itself (48.1 percent). Incredibly, there is not one major NCAA statistic in which the Ducks finish in the bottom half of the country — it's a team with very few glaring weaknesses.
Behind Enemy Lines • Tyson Alger of The Oregonian writes about the Ducks' dominance over Utah and http://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/index.ssf/2017/01/oregons_had_utahs_number_and_t.html#incart_river_index";>how they aim to keep it rolling that direction.
Something's Gotta Give • You may have heard that Oregon is the nation's leader in blocks with 7.7 per game and swatting shots an astounding 20.1 percent of the time against DI competition. But did you know that Utah is one of the least blocked offenses in the country? The Utes rank No. 2 on KemPom for lowest block percentage on offense: 5.3 percent (second only to UCLA). The creativity and versatility of finishers like David Collette, Devon Daniels and Lorenzo Bonam has helped Utah take a limited hit from shot-blockers and shoot 59 percent on 2-point attempts. Then again, the Utes may be without Collette, and they've yet to face blockers on par with Boucher and Bell.
Oregon's Edge • Utah has had a really good run in the turnover department, with four straight games of 10 or fewer and not posting an assist-to-turnover ratio of less than 1 during Pac-12 play. Prepare for that to get tested: Oregon is again the No. 1 turnover-forcing team in the conference, getting opponents to cough up on 22.5 percent of possessions and posting a plus-five average margin (yes, AVERAGE). That also means that Oregon is fairly adept at limiting its own turnovers (10.4 per game), while Utah's defense doesn't do much in terms of forcing the issue on turnovers (No. 276 ranked by KenPom). Turnovers will be key because Oregon can strike so quickly in transition out of their three-quarter court zone defense, and possessions coming off turnovers are incredibly tough to defend.
Utah's Edge • There are just about no on-paper match-ups where Oregon is obviously weak and Utah is obviously strong. Honestly, the Utes' best advantage may be its home crowd. Oregon's two losses this year have come away from home, and they were able to finagle a crazy win over UCLA in Eugene last month. Utah already played one top-10 team tough at home, and with another sellout possible on Thursday night, the Utes will be able to ride the emotion of 15,000 fans at their backs.
Injury Watch • For Oregon, leading scorer Brooks is in question with an ankle injury last week. http://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/index.ssf/2017/01/boot_off_dillon_brooks_is_now.html";>He was seen out of a boot on Tuesday, shooting relatively normally. The Utes certainly must prepare for the idea that he'll play given his track record against them. For Utah,http://bit.ly/2jnz8Lb";> junior David Collette is also up in the air. Early indications were that he was feeling better, but Krystkowiak will keep Collette's status close to the vest until evening warm-ups.
Watch Out For • Can Utah's defense be effective against the Ducks? There's going to be a big match-up on the other side of the court, but it's worth noting that the Utes have found a very tough time defending Oregon as well. At times last year, Utah went with a zone that was probably most effective on the road, http://bit.ly/20QYdvv";>but Brooks was able to almost single-handedly tear that apart. By the end of the game, the Ducks were able to dish for backdoor dunks from Bell and Boucher. Utah's defense has been pretty solid in conference play, but the team will have to play with special "connectivity" as Krystkowiak calls it to slow down Oregon.
kgoon@sltrib.com
Twitter: @kylegoon