This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2016, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
There's always a lot of stuff to sift through the week of the NCAA Tournament. Who has all the time to find this stuff themselves? Consider this a primer.
Here's an early look at what the country is saying about 3-seeded Utah, its first-round match-up with Fresno State, and its NCAA Tournament pathway:
• As most of you know, I'm a Ken Pomeroy devotee, so lets start off with analytics. http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/2016_ncaa_tournament_log5";>KenPom's robots give Utah the fifth-best chance of advancing out of the Midwest regional at 4.2 percent, behind 1-seed Virginia, 2-seed Michigan State, 5-seed Purdue and 4-seed Iowa State. Utah is given a 75.2 percent chance to win its first game and a a 36.1 percent chance to advance to Chicago for the Sweet 16. KenPom gives Utah 190 to 1 odds to win it all, oddly behind Seton Hall (176 to 1). In the first round,http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Utah";> the Utes are projected to beat Fresno State 74-67.
• Stat site 538 rates Utahhttp://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-march-madness-predictions/";> as the fourth-best team in the Midwest, with a 5.3 percent chance to get to Houston. The bracket favors Utah to make it out of the Denver pod onto the Sweet 16, with an 87 percent chance to beat Fresno State and a 50 percent chance to beat either Seton Hall or Gonzaga (worth noting there's a 60-40 split for the Bulldogs there). Utah's chances to win it all? Less than one percent. 538 also notes that http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/making-sense-of-an-ncaa-tournament-bracket-that-makes-no-sense/";>Utah got a seed two lines higher than what it was rated by their metrics.
• http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14967516/kansas-jayhawks-9-2-favorites-vegas-win-ncaa-tournament?ex_cid=sportscenterTW&sf22540007=1";>Las Vegas gives the Utes 40 to 1 odds to win it all, according to ESPN. Vegas Insider had Utah opening as an 8.5 point favorite andhttp://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/14967516/kansas-jayhawks-9-2-favorites-vegas-win-ncaa-tournament?ex_cid=sportscenterTW&sf22540007=1";> the line has since moved to 9 points. Utah is 16-15-1 against the spread this year because Vegas is just that good.
• Every Ute fan on Twitter is talking about Joe Lunardi. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/page/lunardi16Utah/2016-ncaa-tournament-bracket-projections-utah-utes";>He said in an ESPN video that he had a "hard time picking that team to beat anybody good" in the wake of their loss to Oregon. He has the Pirates beating them in round 2. But he's hardly alone:http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/14968500/jay-bilas-fills-more-5-minute-bracket-goes-every-game-ncaa-tournament";> Jay Bilas picked Utah to beat Fresno State but get beat by Seton Hall in the second round. On their podcast, Andy Katz picked Utah to get to the Sweet 16, while Seth Greenberg also had the Pirates knocking out the Utes. Eamonn Brennan doesn't have predictions, but http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/14964029/first-look-all-68-march-madness-teams-2016-ncaa-tournament";>he does write of Utah center Jakob Poeltl: "Our favorite stretch of his season came in February, when Poeltl averaged 23 points and 10 rebounds, and shot 40-of-54 — 40 of 54! — in four games. A Greg Oden-level tear through this tournament is totally on the table."
• Eight CBS analysts like Utah to advance to the Sweet 16. But the problem for Utah comes in Chicago, http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/predictions?ttag=MM16_os_lk_ns2_experts_postSS";>when all eight have the Utes getting knocked out by Michigan State. Five analysts have picked the Spartans as their eventual national champ. The national bracket aggregated from CBS bracket selection also has Utah in the Sweet 16.
• In Sports Illustrated's preview of the Midwest bracket, http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/03/13/ncaa-tournament-midwest-preview-virginia";>Jakob Poeltl is the player to watch. Pete Thamel writes: "Teams simply don't have the quality and depth of post players to contend with a post player like Poeltl. In a era where the center is considered a relic, he could be a matchup nightmare." But he also tags Seton Hall as the sleeper team of the year, citing the Pirates' fantastic run in the Big East Tournament portending things to come.
kgoon@sltrib.com
Twitter: @kylegoon