This is an archived article that was published on sltrib.com in 2015, and information in the article may be outdated. It is provided only for personal research purposes and may not be reprinted.
It's not "win and they're in." No. 3 Utah will still have a majority of its Pac-12 slate before it as it leaves Los Angeles late Saturday. But if it's 4-0, as every other team in the Pac-12 South has at least two losses, you might want to start thinking about what you're doing on Dec. 5.
The Pac-12 Championship Game will have become a highly likely destination for the Utes.
Should they lose, who knows? They'll still be first in the South, with no games remaining against ranked opponents. They could still run the table, beat Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship Game, then receive consideration for a College Football Playoff spot.
It's not "make or break," either.
It's just a football game, on a Saturday night, against a little team they call USC, in a little place they call the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, on a little station they call FOX.
Time, Place and [Radio Waves in] Space • The FOX broadcast begins 5:30 p.m. MT, called by Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt and Molly McGrath, or you can listen to Bill Riley, Frank Dolce and Bo Nagahi on ESPN 700. Satellite listeners should tune into Sirius or XM channels 84. The forecast calls for clear skies, a high of 88 and a low of 66 at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, where the Trojans are 432-136-27 all-time and Utah is 0-5.
Line • USC -3.5, over/under 60 points. Utah is 8-1 against the spread in its last nine road games and a winner of five straight on the road, and the total has been under in four of Utah's last five games against USC.
Opposing Coach • With the dismissal of Steve Sarkisian, Clay Helton becomes the fourth head coach to lead the Trojans against the Utes in four years. Helton still serves in his third year as USC's offensive coordinator and was in his fifth as quarterbacks coach, having previously been an assistant at Memphis, Houston and Duke. He was already 1-0 as an interim head coach, taking the reins from Ed Orgeron for a Las Vegas Bowl rout of previously 11-1 Fresno State in 2013. Kyle Whittingham — assumed by some to be on USC's short list for a long-term Sarkisian replacement — said earlier this week the Ute staff knows little about Helton's head coaching style, but that they've perceived that the Trojans have rallied around him.
Utah Ties • Twenty-nine players on Utah's most current roster hail from the Southern California area, while USC entered this season having had just three freshman in history from the state of Utah: Bountiful's Joe Davis (1940-42), Salt Lake City's Stanley Havili (2006-10) and Murray's John Martinez (2010-13). This year, they'll add freshmen linebackers Osa Masina (Brighton) and Porter Gustin (Salem Hills) to that list. Masina is the brother of Utah linebacker Uaea. USC senior fullback Soma Vainuku is a cousin of Utah sophomore defensive tackle Vaha Vainuku, while starting USC center Toa Lobendahn is the son of former Utah lineman Vince (1990-93). Junior outside linebacker Su'a Cravens is related by marriage to Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham and by blood to onetime Utah defensive lineman Siaki, who transferred to Hawaii after one year in Salt Lake City. USC volunteer football analyst Mike Tuiasosopo was a Utah assistant in 2003, and assistant strength and conditioning coach Nu'u Tafisi was formerly on Utah's strength staff. Utah senior linebacker Jared Norris and USC quarterback Cody Kessler graduated together at Bakersfield's Centennial High and are close friends. (A special shout-out to USC sports information director Tim Tessalone and his staff, who are impressively thorough with their "Connections" notes.)
Pregame Quotable • Told he looked as though he didn't have a care in the world, Kyle Whittingham: "Am I looking like that? Like I don't have a care in the world? That's good, I guess. Don't feel that way. I'm knotted up inside."
Media Guide Nuggets • USC kicker Matt Boermeester has gone the full spectrum: greyshirting in 2012 (not enrolling as a full-time student after high school), blueshirting in 2014 (getting pushed forward to the 2015 class under an NCAA technicality for nonrecruited players) and redshirting in 2014.
Telling Stat • Fifteen USC true freshman have played this year, compared to just five for Utah, as USC finally begins to near full strength after three years of NCAA sanctions. Last season, the first in the post-sanction era, USC had just 65 of the allowed 85 players on scholarship and never suited up more than 57 in a game — with as few as 48 on two occasions. Now, after what Rivals rated as the nation's No. 1 recruiting class, it's back up to 81.
Trojans Offensive Outlook • Fans may not be fond of "bend but don't break" approaches, but against USC's offense, which averages 7.5 yards per play and typically scores in little more than 2 minutes, defenses strive to keep the ball in front of them.
Even after senior quarterback Cody Kessler matched last season's total with five interceptions in his last three games, Utah praised his decision-making all week.
"He's so smart," said cornerbacks coach Sharrieff Shah. "You won't give him anything that he hasn't seen. There's no blitz that we can come up with or any magic."
And even after the losses of Buck Allen, Nelson Agholor and George Farmer, Kessler has the usual accoutrements of a USC attack.
It will say something about the cover skills of whichever corner lines up opposite USC sophomore JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has 82 or more yards in every game this season. Utah must also account for dynamic sophomore Adoree Jackson, a three-way player who Helton indicated earlier this week would play more frequently than usual at wideout, and freshman running back Ronald Jones II, who has yet to receive more than 10 carries but already has three rushes of 44 or more yards.
But the USC offensive machine needs a few repairs: All-Pac-12 center Max Tuerk is lost for the season with a knee injury, and starting left tackle Chad Wheeler is recovering from a concussion — big losses for an offensive line that was already conceding 2.5 sacks per game.
Helton also said earlier this week that wideouts Steven Mitchell (ankle) and Darreus Rogers (hamstring) — 26 receptions between them — are unlikely to play.
Trojans Defensive Outlook • It's a youthful bunch, with five freshmen and sophomores in the starting lineup and others — including Utah natives Masina and Gustin — earning early playing time.
True freshman Cameron Smith picks up where four-year starter Hayes Pullard left off as the Trojans' leading tackler, with 53 tackles, while 6-foot-2, 200-pound true freshman corner Iman Marshall already has 24 tackles and a pick.
But USC has yet to find a replacement for Leonard Williams and J.R. Tavai, who accounted for 14 of USC's 33 sacks last season, and has instead relied on more of a committee pass-rushing effort. The Trojans do not blitz nearly as frequently as Arizona State — few teams do — but they may have to get creative to crack a Utah offensive front that conceded just two sacks in its other five games.
That effort will likely involve Cravens, a safety-linebacker hybrid who had five sacks last year and two already in 2015, and Gustin, who has two sacks in limited duty.
It remains to be seen how much a more frequent role on offense will affect Jackson's playing time on defense, with Helton indicating that he will play at least on apparent passing downs.
Another defensive back to watch is sophomore Chris Hawkins, who switched to safety in the offseason and has totaled 25 tackles, two fumble recoveries and an interception.
Senior defensive tackle Delvon Simmons (26 tackles, a sack and a forced fumble) anchors a middle that has helped hold opponents to 1-of-7 on fourth down conversion attempts, a Utah specialty this season, at 10-of-11.
Trojans Special Teams Outlook • On offense and defense, but especially on special teams, Utah will be keenly aware of Jackson. USC's punt and kickoff returner, Jackson returned two kicks for touchdowns last season and has a long punt return of 45 yards this season.
The Trojan place-kicker is junior Alex Wood, who is 5-for-7 with a career-long 42-yarder against Notre Dame, and senior punter Kris Albarado is averaging 42.5 yards per boot.
Of note: USC has blocked 28 kicks since 2010 — including Utah's game-tying field goal attempt in the inaugural Pac-12 game, in 2011.
Required Reading
Injury Report • The status of senior linebacker Jared Norris, who appeared to injure his knee against Arizona State, is unknown. Senior linebacker Senior Utah wideout Tim Patrick was listed on the two-deep for the first time this season, but whether he'll play is up to Patrick, Whittingham said earlier this week. Senior cornerback Ahmad Christian has yet to make his return from an Achilles injury but had said he was nearing 100 percent. Junior tight end Siale Fakailoatonga (knee) joined senior tight end Evan Moeai (lower leg), sophomore running back Troy McCormick (knee) and sophomore nickelback Jordan Fogal (knee) on the list of players who are lost for the season. The statuses of freshman running back Marcel Brooks-Brown and sophomore guard Lo Falemaka (gunshot wounds) are unknown. USC will be without Tuerk, and possibly also Rogers, Mitchell and Wheeler on offense. The Trojans are also expected to be without defensive tackle Claude Pelon (knee).
Three Big Questions
1. Can Utah continue to win the turnover margin? • Utah makes a concerted effort both to limit turnovers and to generate them, and coaches credit that effort for the plus-two margin in the turnover category that Utah has averaged this season. But every team makes a concerted effort to limit turnovers and generate them. Six games is enough of a sample size to know that Utah's propensity is no total fluke, but might it be somewhat flukey? USC has punished its opponents with 44 points off of 10 opposing turnovers, while limiting the damage to 10 points off its own seven.
2. Who will start fastest? • USC has outscored opponents 152 to 54 in the first quarter, and just 78-74 the rest of the way. Utah overcame a fourth-quarter deficit against Arizona State, but it suits its fancy more to seize an early lead and milk the clock with repeated doses of Devontae Booker. If the Trojans get their customary early advantage and Utah is forced to take uncharacteristic chances, the Utes could get an answer to Big Question No. 1 that they don't much appreciate.
3. Can Utah prevent big plays? • None of Utah's cornerbacks are a physical match for the 6-foot-2, 215-pound Smith-Schuster. None of Utah's defenders can expect to track Jones II, who ran a 10.37 100 meters, or Jackson, who could probably be an Olympic long jumper if he put his mind to it. It takes a collective effort to contain USC's playmakers, and that means resisting the urge to try to do too much. Opposing coaches have praised Utah all year for its assignment-soundedness. The lights will be brighter than ever Saturday, but the Utes will need to be patient, and continue to trust the principles that have made them 6-0.
— Matthew Piper
mpiper@sltrib.com
Twitter: @matthew_piper