Exactly one year from now, the United States Men's National soccer team will be participating in the first round of the 19th World Cup in South Africa.

True, they're only halfway through the final round of regional qualifying. But American fans should book their tickets now -- nothing short of a massive doping scandal will keep the hemisphere's top squad from advancing to the 32-team event.

So what are we to make of this week's Confederations Cup? First, the USA went to South Africa and was administered a schoolyard whipping by Italy and Brazil. Then on Sunday, they delivered a gutsy 3-0 win over Egypt, and benefited from Italy's ineptitude against Brazil.

The USA finds itself looking at a semifinal matchup with Spain on Wednesday.

Is this roller coaster of results what the USA can expect at next summer's World Cup?

Unfortunately, the answer is yes.

This week's games have served as a dry run for World Cup organizers, but also matched up the six continental champions, Italy and hosts South Africa in a meaningful competition.

If the USA gets a draw as cruel next year in Johannesburg, it could be three-games-and-out.

It was daunting enough to have to play Italy in the first game.

The USA put forth 45 minutes of exceptional effort -- and led the four-time World Cup champions at halftime. But the red card ejection of midfielder Ricardo Clark was too much to bear and the Americans wilted predictably

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in the second half.

The final score was 3-1.

Unfortunately, the fates were no kinder to the USA when they drew Brazil -- the only five-time champions -- in the second game of the Confederations Cup.

This on-field performance was particularly distressing. The USA simply isn't good enough to play with the likes of Kaka and Robinho. It took Brazil just six minutes to take the lead, 15 more to put away the game. The final score was 3-0.

Matched up against FIFA's 40th-ranked nation, Egypt, we saw the tantalizing, dominating side of a U.S. squad.

Therein lies the crux of U.S. Soccer. They cannot compete with the top seven teams in the FIFA rankings: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Brazil, England and Argentina.

The program has reached a plateau with no significant movement in sight.

There's no shame in that. Everyone in the world is chasing the septet. It's just that Americans expect more. We expect winners.

However, a generational change is required to get this team to the next level.

In the late 1980s, the first generation of youth soccer players emerged players to raise our status from North American minnow. The simultaneous development of Tony Meola, Kasey Keller, Marcelo Balboa, John Harkes and Eric Wynalda (all 23 or under in the 1990 World Cup) provided the stimulus for the U.S. National team for the next decade.

Twelve years later, the last of that generation combined with the first "MLS generation" (including Eddie Pope, Landon Donovan, DaMarcus Beasley, Brian McBride and Clint Mathis) to make a historic run to the World Cup Quarterfinals in South Korea.

But such glory is not in the cards for this team.

Neither Eddie Johnson nor Jozy Altidore has proven they can adequately replace McBride -- America's best target forward ever.

As solid as Carlos Bocanegra and Oguchi Onyewu are, they're not Pope.

Donovan, Beasley, Clint Dempsey and Michael Bradley are supporting pieces, but none can carry the midfield on its shoulders.

The next progression in American soccer will require another generation -- or at least one transcendent player.

He hasn't emerged yet.

STEVE PASTORINO is the former general manager of Real Salt Lake and an occasional contributor to The Salt Lake Tribune.